Normally at this point in the week we're listening to the chatter in the house to get an idea of who's going up as the repl-nom. But this week nothing they say matters. The replacement will be the next up on list from the viewer voting. I'm really not sure who it's going to be, and there's no point in speculating. It really is a case of replacement nominee roulette. Who goes up has nothing to do with their relationship with the current HOH, or how they'd fare against the other nominees. It's only about the impression they've made on the viewers. And worse than that, since the replacement nom is going to be at least the 3rd choice and possibly the 4th, it's even pretty random from the fan perspective. (Okay, technically it could be that the replacement nom is the viewers 2nd choice, but I'm nearly positive Aaryn was the first choice.)