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polished off

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posted Monday, 14 September 2009

It seems the HGs got a banner today.  Kevin definitely saw it, and claimed later that he saw Natalie's name and words like "trust."  Natalie countered that she saw "Kevin" and "liar."  We of course have no idea what it really said, or if what they're saying is true.  All we know is that as soon as it flew over the feeds went to trivia, and they go back off if the HGs start talking about the banner.

kevin jordan nat

We're also getting some pretty random feed blocking today.  Just now I was listening to Jordan telling stories about her dad cheating on her mom, which weren't blocked.  Then she finished her story, asked Natalie if she was nervous about tomorrow.  Natalie said yes, Jordan said she was too.  Then she moved on to talking about her nailpolish, and that inspired button-boy to give us the control room.  What the....?!

polished off toes

Anyway.  Each year once the final 2 have been determined I do my own little jury analysis of how I think the evicted HGs will vote.  And normally, before final 2, I do an  analysis of who should take whom.  There are really only 2 reasons to pick a final 2 partner in BB-either you think you can beat that person, or you think you can't beat either of your choices, so you pick the one you'd rather see win.  In either case, it's all about guessing how the jurors will vote.  So the fact that BB's wacky schedule this year means I have to combine the two analyses is really quite efficient.

So here we go...and as is now our tradition here at mybbpov, screencaps are from week 1.

Juror #1, Jessie

jes jess jess

If Natalie's in it, Jessie is pretty much a guaranteed vote for her.  Though he outed her age-lie to the rest of the jury, I don't think he really held it against her too much.  After all, she told him the truth.  And she was nothing but loyal to him in the game.  If it's Kevin vs. Jordan, I'm guessing he'll vote for Kevin, just because he's he sees Jordan as a floater.  Though, if Kevin ends up kicking Natalie, Jessie could see that as a betrayal and throw his vote to Jordan.

Juror #2, Lydia

lyd lyd lyd

Lydia said she wants to see Kevin or Natalie win, but then she found out about all of Natalie's lies.  If Kevin's in it, he almost surely has Lydia's vote.  If it's Jordan vs. Natalie, Lydia will probably vote for Natalie.  Even though she was mad about the lies, she'll probably still respect the gameplay.  And she's never thought much of Jordan as a player.

Juror #3, Russell

russ russ russ

Russell said he tried to emulated the BB master manipulators, and that seems to be the gameplay he respects.  If Natalie's in it, I'm guessing he'll vote for her.  If it's Kevin and Jordan, he'll probably vote for Kevin because he's always seen Jordan as a weak player who just depended on Jeff and floated to the end.

Juror #4, Jeff

jeff jeff jeff

I'd be surprised if Jeff didn't vote for Jordan if she's in F2.  If it's Kevin vs. Natalie, I think he'll go with Natalie.  He still blames Kevin for backstabbing him.  On the other hand, if enough comes out about Natalie's lies and Jeff realizes Nat orchestrated most of the moves he's blaming Kevin for, he could flip.  But they rarely figure things like that out in time.

Juror #5, Michele

mich mich mich

Michele told Kevin that she wouldn't vote for him in the end if he kicked her at F4, and I tend to believe her.  If it's Jordan vs. Natalie, I think she'll vote for Jordan because they were aligned, and Jordan never really backstabbed Michele.

Juror #7, America

braden laura casey ronnie chima

I'd say it's almost 100% certain that America's vote will be for Jordan if she's in the Final 2, and Kevin if it's him and Natalie.

So, without knowing juror number 6, by my guesses, Natalie could beat Kevin, but Kevin/Jordan or Natalie/Jordan is a tie.  So, if Kevin wins the Final HOH, he should pick Jordan to go to F2, which is what I think he will do.  Now, if Jordan wins, she should either figure she's playing for second and take the person she would rather see win, or she should evict whomever she thinks is most likely to vote for her despite her kicking them.

So, if Juror #6 is...


jord jord jord

If Jordan ends up on the jury, she will most likely vote for Natalie.  Kevin would have had to evict her, plus she feels he betrayed her by backstabbing Jeff.


kev kev kev

Kevin's a bit of a toss up. If he ends up on the jury, he will have been evicted by Jordan.  Though he seems to have a lot of animosity toward Natalie (at least in the DR he does), he might also think she played a good game.  The question is, if Jordan kicks him, will he see that as a good game move and vote for her, or feel betrayed and vote against her.


nat nat nat

I think if Natalie ends up on the jury she'll vote for whomever did not evict her.  I think she believes each of them will take her, and she'll feel betrayed if she's kicked.  Kevin has been talking about cluing her in early to try to smooth things over, but I doubt it would work.

So, assuming I'm right (and for the record, my jury predictions have never been 100% right), the irony is that whoever loses the Final HOH has the better chance of winning the $500K.

This could actually be interesting.

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