Mystic Gemini's BigBrother POV
This is one of the more interesting F3 scenarios we've had on BB. Who ends up in F2 depends not only on who wins the final HOH, but also on how they think the jury will react to their choice at the end. At the end of the day, it's all about what are the more afraid of? Are the jurors going to vote personally or based on gameplay? And even if they go off of the best gameplay, will their play be seen as great, or will it be seen as dirty? Or simply be overlooked?
Dan is in the best position to make it to the end since he has an F2 deal with Ian, and Ian does not have one with Danielle. But if Ian is afraid he's going to lose to Dan, but could beat Danielle, he might take her. On the other hand, if he comes to the conclusion that he can't beat either one of them, he'll probably go ahead and stick with the deal, being afraid that backstabbing his fellow "Renegade" would hurt his chances even more.
If Dan wins the final HOH, he is going to have to backstab at least one of his F2 deals. Listening to him talk over the last couple of days, he's afraid he can't beat Danielle, but he's also afraid if he choses Ian over her he'll just look like a total scumbag and it will cost him any goodwill he might have left in the jury. So his plan seems to be to try to throw the final comp to Ian, and count on Ian sticking to their deal. But throwing the comp not only puts Dan in a position where he has to worry whether Ian will betray him or not, but there's also a question as to whether his ego will let him tank that last comp, which if he goes for it, he's pretty sure to win.
So here's my annual guess on the jury votes, with the 3 possible scenarios, in decreasing order of likeliness. The predictions in bold are the ones I'm most confident in. And, as always, all screencaps below are from Week 1.
For the entire season, Ashley has been the wildcard. Right from the first vote, it was impossible to guess for whom she was going to vote. And even when she did pick a side and teamed up with Froogie, I couldn't figure out why she was doing what she was doing. Did she really think there was some strategic advantage to teaming up with the most hated guy in the house when his top ally was about to get kicked? Did she actually think Boogie was going to end up staying and then she'd be the lowest member on strong team? Or was she just going with her hormones, having an admitted crush on Frank? For all the talk about her "showmance" with Ian, which was completely staged by CBS, I don't think it will have any influence on her vote. In the end, Ian nominated her and that got her booted. At the same time she is the least aware of what Dan was up to, for both good and bad. Bottom line, I think Ashley's vote will have the most to do with which other jurors have influence over her, namely Britney or Frank.
Britney was the one to coin the term "Dan's Mist" and she was the first to recognize its power. She was also the first significant victim of his campaign to cut everyone. Sure, she was super-mad at the time, but even before she left the house she recognized that Dan's moves were brilliant in the context of the game. The more perspective she gets, the more she should see Dan's gameplay for what it is: simply excellent. She also did have a really strong alliance with Ian, and he definitely never betrayed her. But Britney, especially as a second time player ought to vote for whomever played the best game, not whomever she likes the best. That being said, I won't be shocked if Britney votes for Ian over Dan. Disappointed, but not shocked.
Frank knows BB. As he liked to repeatedly remind people, he spent several years trying to get on the show, and he's a long time viewer. He also respects good gameplay, and were he a viewer at home, I have no doubt he'd be 100% on Team Dan. However, Frank also has an ego and he knows he got played by Dan. The real question is whether he will end up looking at it from the perspective of "the guy who got me out is the one who deserves my vote," or if his bitterness will overcome that logic. When he realizes that they all got played by Dan, he might feel a little better about getting got himself, but you never know. At the same time, Frank was big-time betrayed by Ian, and I think he's going to be even more bitter about that than about Dan's shanking him.
Joe was the one who was the most on to Dan's gameplay from early on. On top of that, though Dan nominated Joe and was the one who really sent him out, especially by putting Danielle next to him, it wasn't really a direct betrayal. Dan and Joe never had a deal, so he had no obligation to keep him safe. Joe also said a couple of times that if Dan makes it to the end, he deserves to win since he will have played them all so thoroughly. And though Joe did believe he had a legit alliance with Ian, it's quite possible that once Shane got to jury and told them all about the QP, Joe might realize that Ian never had any intention of staying loyal to Joe. Danielle on the other hand, never really did anything directly against Joe, including being the only one who didn't have a hand in his eviction since she was on the block next to him.
Jenn's vote is the easiest for me to predict. Ian keeps saying she's not going to vote for "anyone with a penis" but that's simply not true. Sure, she'd like to see a woman win, but she's going to vote for the person she thinks played the best game, regardless of gender. Jenn's also one of the grown-ups on the jury and she's not going to be overly bitter about what anyone did in the game. She has had a lot of respect for Dan's game moves since early on. She also noticed that he took the time to get to know her and spent time with her back in the days when no one else was giving her the time of day. She also I think realizes that he legitimately appreciated her saving him with her veto, and that he actually did want to keep her around longer than she ended up staying. She's not so naive as to think she was more valuable to him than Danielle, or certainly his own safety. Jenn also had a pretty strong bond with Danielle, but I'm not sure how loyal she'll feel once she realizes that Dani really did want to keep Shane in the game over Jenn. As far as Ian, Jenn has basically no respect for him whatsoever. And it's got nothing to do with his chromosomes. She just doesn't like how he played the game. She sees him as a rat, and nothing is going to change that.
If Danielle is in the final 2, it's pretty much a given that Shane will vote for her. Even if he had been listening to Dan on his way out the door when Dan told him that Danielle was playing him, and to ask Jenn to confirm, Shane would forgive her. He's going to blame Dan as much as Danielle for any game moves she made against Shane. The real question is how will Shane vote, if the final 2 is Dan vs Ian. First there's a question of how much the rest of the jury will influence him. I don't think that any amount of perspective is going to change Shane's view of Dan as a dirty player, and if Dan does evict Danielle that will just reinforce his view and Shane will surely vote for Ian. But if Danielle ends up on the jury I think it's far more likely to be because Ian kicked her, and she very likely would walk out and tell Shane to vote for Dan. And since Shane has never had to think for himself the entire game, I think he would probably do it.
If Dan ends up on the jury, it will be because Ian re-neg'ed on their Renegades deal. That coupled with his actual loyalty to his former player locks up his vote. Likewise, if Ian goes to jury it will be because Dan re-neg'ed on him. Dan has a slightly stronger argument for doing so, and I do think if Dan wins part 3 he will feel like he has to take Danielle. If this were 3+ years ago and the final juror had a few days to get perspective, I can see Ian gaining some understanding, but with only 5 minutes to get over it, it's hard to see that happening. On the other hand, I won't be shocked if Dan kicks Ian and Ian still votes for him. I don't expect it, but it could happen. Danielle's vote I think all depends on who kicks her. She will vote for Dan as long as he doesn't backstab her. On the off chance that he does, however, she will almost surely vote for Ian.
So by my count if it's Dan vs. Ian, assuming Ian won the Final HOH, Dan wins it 7-0. If Dan won the Final HOH and kicked Danielle, he definitely loses Shane and Danielle, and I also think it pushes Britney and Ashley over the fence, and Ian would win 4-3 at least. If it's Dan vs. Danielle, Dan probably wins 4-3. And if it's Danielle vs. Ian, Danielle wins 5-2. So oddly, both Dan and Ian's best chance of winning is for the other to win Part 3 and evict Danielle. And the chances of that happening are better for Dan than for Ian.
If you've been reading this site over the years, you may recall that I've never been dead on with my jury predictions. I'm going to go out on a limb and predict that this year's will be the least accurate ever. I think I'm definitely being influenced by my personal opinion that Dan should, without a doubt, win this season. Whatever people say about whether he played a dirty game or not this time around, I still say he's played the most brilliant strategic game of BB ever. Win or lose, I give him that. But I can't honestly say that the jury will see it that way. They're at a disadvantage because they can't see the whole picture, and they've been personally affected by his moves. There's also no accounting for how many of them will go with the argument of not wanting to give the big prize to the same person twice, or the "needs the money" factor for either Ian or Danielle. And the truth is, I won't call it a total scandal if Ian wins. He certainly played a decent game. And while it's true that a lot of Ian's moves were manipulated by Dan, it's also the case that Dan was trying to get him out at one point and couldn't, so Ian wasn't dragged to the end. On the other hand, if Danielle wins, I will be rather disgusted. It's not exactly that she played a bad game, it's just that she was so controlled by Dan that I don't think she should win over him. And having Dan on her side gives her an unfair advantage over Ian, so I'd hate to see him lose to her. But mostly with Danielle it's just that I can't stand her. I usually try not to hate on the hamsters too much (or more accurately I usually just get to a point where I hate them all equally) but Dani gets a special kind of dislike out of me for some of her behavior this summer.
