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stab in the dark

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posted Monday, 12 July 2010

Very little is going on today on the feeds.  Annie's still campaigning, but she's really only got one plank in her platform: the rest of them should break up the couple.  They've all heard it and most aren't biting.  But it's still early.  It's not worth really keeping track of until Tuesday/Wednesday.  And actually she could really hurt herself by exhausting them all now.  On the other hand, if she does nothing she'll get the "she wants to go home" rep. that's kicked some HGs week one in past seasons.

Anyway, with nothing to really report from the house, we're going to take a moment to go over our StaboTool options:



He's such the obvious choice that I discounted him early on.  But it depends a little bit on how much credit you give to the prods.  Maybe he's so obvious because it is him.  There was a very odd moment last night when he went into the HOH room and moved stuff around for no apparent reason.  He could just be being One Weird Dude, or he could be following prod prodding.  He was awfully quick to raise his hand and pass on the HOH comp.  If he is the Tool, the prods might very well have told him to make sure he got himself into the safety spot.  It would be the only way to 100% guarantee that their Tool makes it to week 2. He was also in prime position for both the SR locking and the picture taping (at least from what we've seen...but both of those were pre-feed incidents...and any obvious StaboTooling will most likely be bubbled blocked).  And he's got the "probably doesn't need the money" argument for why he'd pass on the chance at $500K.  On the other hand, I've been thinking that someone who really *does* need money would be a better candidate since Tooling gives a greater chance of getting something significant....but then that requires logic, reasoning and understanding of statistics.  And you just have to look at how many people play the lottery to realize how rare those qualities are.  Also in the Andrew's not the Tool column is his "I swear on my daughter that I'm not" statement.  While all that swearing on family members is generally bullsh-sugar pops, people don't generally throw their kids out on a blatant lie.



She's definitely been stirring things up all along, scurrying around talking to everyone, and the drama's gone higher ever since she was nom'ed.  But she's not really doing anything that I'd see as StaboTooling anyone else.  The person's game she's hurting the most is her own.  I also still say that if she were the Tool, the prods would want to keep her around, and they'd be doing more to help her.  On the other hand, that could be still to come.



He's got the toothbrush thing going against him.  It is a little odd that the lights go out and your thoughts go straight to dental hygiene.  But again, it's so obvious it's probably not him.



She's so insistent that Andrew's the Tool that it makes me wonder if it's not her.  Also the 2 people with tape on their faces make good suspects.  Apparently the X-ing happened the day after the H/HN comp. where Britney accidentally kicked Kathy in the head.  It did get a mention on the show, but they kind of glossed over it. From what I heard on the feeds Kathy was a bit upset at first, though sometime after the taped faces, they made up.



He's near the bottom of my list for Tool suspects.  I think his "I hate rats" comment in the DR on the first show is legitimately how he feels.  I also think he really wants to win and he would be unlikely to be offered a role that took him out of the running.  And his personality/sense of humour is so big that any Tooling he did would be unlikely to be unnoticed.  Then again, all that makes him a good Tool choice because of all those reasons not to suspect him.  And why does he wear sunglasses all the time, including indoors?



Becoming the first HOH is probably a bad move for the Tool, and he hasn't really done anything Toolish.



Getting stuck in the muck and costing her team the H/HN comp. is a little suspicious.  Plus she has the same suspect factor as Britney with the tape on the picture.  She'd also probably be a good Tool with her background in undercover work and profiling (which she mentioned during pre-show interviews and specifically said she wasn't going to mention to the HGs).



She's got that under-the-radar quality, but at the same time hasn't done much to undermine anyone as far as I can tell.



I'm getting more and more suspicious of him, the more he eggs Annie on.  Everyone seemed to agree that keeping Annie would be bad for everyone, so the Tool ought to be the one trying to keep her.  Lane is also so low-key that he makes a good Tool suspect.   And unlike Annie who was accused of trying to align with everyone, Lane actually is in good with pretty much everyone.  And his subtle way of planting thoughts but staying out of the way of all fallout is a great Tool skill.



He's been one of my leading candidates just because he has the personality that the prods seem to like in their Tools.  He's a "smart guy" who won't come across as a big physical threat



She's made practically no impression on me since the feeds kicked in, and I was thinking I had pretty much no use for her.  Then last night it occurred to me that maybe she's the Tool and she stayed super-quiet until noms and repl-noms were over to keep herself off the block and now the drama can begin.  She also did win the $10K in the HOH comp, which as I pointed out the other day, would be a good SaboTool move because it would mean that no one else could get it.



Other than simply being on the block and being the non-Target, she's not really doing anything to hurt anyone else's game.



He's incredibly low on my list of Tool suspects because he does the exact opposite of what I'd think a Tool would do.  He's often the voice of reason when the rest of them are going crazy.  On the other hand, if he's managing to cause drama without being in the middle of it, that's amazing.

None of the Above


This occurred to me early on, that it would be interesting to tell them there's a SaboTool and make them all suspicious of each other when really none of them are the SaboTool.  The whole thing about how it had to be a HG who put the lock on the SR is crap--I can completely see production doing it, whether there's an actual Tool or not.  That's also why all this worrying about who was where during the blackout is pointless.  The prods can clearly help the Tool without being "unfair" since he/she isn't in the running for the big prize.  The real issue with the idea that none of the HGs are the Tool is that BB has clearly said that one of them is.  If that turns out to be a lie, they're going to have to weasel word their way out of what they've already said. Not that they couldn't do that.  They've done it before.

And, of course, after saying nothing was happening...while I was in the middle of writing this, not one, but two fights broke out in the more to come.... 

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