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There can be only one

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posted Wednesday, 6 September 2006
Since we're down to a lot fewer options, here are my thoughts on the end game:

If Erika wins HOH:
Who to pick? Janie, she promised, Boogie she has a better chance to beat. But does she really want to be alone in the house w/B for 4 days, even for $500K....
Who can she beat? vs. Janelle: Janelle's played a pretty good game, won lots of comps, voted out Will. But she was manipulated by CT, and Erika is pretty well liked.
vs. Boogie: He's 1/2 of CT, but I think definitely seen as the weaker half. Erika was manipulated by him, but she got him in the end. She was behind Will's eviction.

If Janelle wins HOH:
Who to pick? She's promised Erika (I think). She has a better chance to beat Boogie. If she sends out Erika, she'll probably get that vote (or maybe not b/c of breaking the promise). If she sends out B. it's 50/50 if she gets that vote. Probably not.
Who can she beat? vs. Boogie: I think she's got it wrapped. vs. Erika, see above

If Boogie wins HOH: (probably won't happen)
Who to pick? Probably thinks he has a better chance against Erika, but might also be counting on her vote. Now that the "girls" are friends he'll probably figure J. will vote for E. if he votes J. out.
Who can he beat? see above

My predictions/opinion:
Erika HOH: takes Janelle, and should
Janie HOH: probably takes Erika, but should take Boogie
Boogie HOH: 50/50....depends on who he blames more for Will's eviction. He should take Janelle, but he seems a little slow on the uptake and thinks Erika's still in to him. Might also think the $ split is still on with...either?

The Jury (1st choice, 2nd choice)
Marcellas: Erika, Janelle
Howie: Janelle, Erika
James: tough one, probably Janelle, Erika
Danielle: another tough one, might very well have a lot of respect for Erika voting her out and getting Will, so maybe Erika, Janelle
CG: Janelle, Erika
Will: almost certain he'll stay loyal to CT if B. makes it. Toss up on the girls. Probably respects Erika's move and thinks Janelle let E. take his place at the puppet strings. Boogie, Erika
Final juror:
    Boogie: however Will votes
    Erika: Janelle
    Janelle: Erika, Boogie's right....either girl should take him to the finals. But will they? Janie esp. needs to be against Boogie now. Erika scored major points by getting J. to vote out Will. If Erika wins, that will be the move that got it for her.

Of course, the jury questions might change things, and I might be wrong on jurors' thinking.

Just for fun, if the final 2 had been Will vs. Janelle, my guess on the votes:
Marcellas: Will
Howie: Janie
James: not sure, but probably Will
Danielle: Will
CG: Janelle
Erika: Janelle, assuming she still found out CT, otherwise Will
Boogie: Will

So, I stand by my statement that the only way for J. to win was to vote out Will. The problem she has now is that even though she technically voted him out, Erika could get the credit. On the other hand, the jurors might say, yes, E. gets credit for that big move, but one move doesn't win the game and on balance J. wins.

And I say all of this shows that Will should have won.  The only person who had half a chance against him was Janelle.  And the fact that immediately recognized what a great move Erika made in getting rid of him and that it could, probably would, cost Janelle the game.

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