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posted Thursday, 24 August 2006
A little recap/follow-up/random observations from yesterday:
* I noticed Boogie expressed a tiny bit of remorse over the way he's been treating Erika.  Or maybe not.  What I heard him say (re: the bathtub scene) was something like "I heard myself talking and was a little disgusted."  Disgusted w/himself for being a dick, or disgusted as in totally not into her?
* I see BB finally gave them a sharp knife for the kitchen.
* Janelle and I have the same middle name.  :)
* Does James really believe Janie when she says she's voting for him to stay?  I'd say he's not that gullible, but on the other hand, he did stay "true" to the S6 alliance by voting for Howie to stay and maybe expects the same in return.  But he did vote out Kaysar (and nullify Janie's vote)....obviously James is thinking about the jury.
* Janie and Will are cute together.  I'm so over worrying about what's real and what's not.  I'm sure I'll be back on that at some point, but for now I'm going with the attitude that they went on BB, which is, after all, a TV show with the purpose of entertaining us and that's what they're doing.  Their real lives shouldn't matter any more than the real lives of (other) actors.

A further foul:  I was going to include this yesterday, decided it wasn't worth it, but since it's been repeated....Janie and Will disappearing into the DR for hours on end and then coming back singing, knowing that will get the internet feeds cut.  Sorry, no good.  It's not fair game play b/c a large part of BB is that anyone can happen to overhear anything that is going on at anytime and BB sees everything (yes, I know BB still sees the DR, though they talked about it not being recorded/usable).  If they're in there strategizing, no fair.  If they're in there negotiating "banana bread" I still say no fair.  One quick off-camera session to get codes set up, maybe okay.  But this is ridiculous.  And if they're in there just flirting or hanging out or fair game-wise b/c the other HGs should have the chance to see their interactions (or they have to do the "hiding" in the house).   And certainly, no fun for us.  So...
Verdict: Foul    (Yellow card only, no CAPs and !!! like the red card to B&E, so it's just a warning:  Knock it off!)

Here's my real topic for today:  I was thinking this morning that if the F2 ends up being anyone other than Will and Janelle, it will not only be uninteresting, but wrong.  Final 6 is a little too early to start looking at F2 scenarios (15 possibilities), but it's already seeming obvious to me.  Here's some analysis:

Should she win?  Maybe.  She's played pretty well, kept a lot of alliances going, hasn't lied too much or ridden coat-tails. 
Who could she beat in F2? Erika, definitely.  CG, maybe.  Boogie, maybe.  Will or Janelle, no way.
Should she win?  No way.  All she has done the entire game is agree with whatever the HOH says.  How many times have we heard her say "I'll do whatever you want"  and "uh-huh, absolutely"?  She is the ultimate floater, she has an alliance w/everyone left except Janie (or thinks she does).  That could be considered a valid strategy, but I wouldn't call it a winning one. 
Who could she beat in F2?  No one.
Should he win?  Maybe.  He's played things pretty close to the vest.  No one can figure out what he's up to, he hasn't done anything nasty to anyone, except maybe Howie (though I think he was completely sincere in feeling like he had no choice). 
Who could he beat in F2?  Erika, definitely.  Danielle, maybe, Boogie, ditto.  Will, no way.  Janelle, doubtful.
Should she win?  Yes.  She kicks ass in competitions, she's come back from some pretty low places, she keeps losing her alliance members, but manges to pick up new ones, and she's quite possibly giving the Evil Dr. a run for his money. 
Who could she beat in F2? Erika, of course.  Danielle, umhmm.  CG, sure.  Boogie, you bet.  Will, maybe.  They have very different games, but they've both played incredibly well.  And everybody loves Janie.
Should he win?  No.  He'd be nowhere w/o Will.  He's stayed true to his alliance (well, duh) and he's actually won a couple of competitions, but basically he's Will's sidekick. 
Who could he beat in F2? Erika, yeah--my dead hamster could beat her.  Even with Will's whole "I'll be in sequester campaigning for you" bit, I don't think he'd beat anyone else.  Maybe CG, but probably not.  Theoretically he could beat Will, if W. says "don't vote for me" but I'd like to think the jury would say "fuck that....Will played better, he wins.  Go split your banana bread if you want."
Dr. Will
Should he win?  Yes.  He rules them all, the closest he's ever come to being evicted was when he was doing it to himself, and even that was all strategy.  Sure, he doesn't win comps. but that's entirely intentional and a very valid strategy...instead he hands them to whomever he wants to win.  He is an evil genius.  And has more charm and charisma than should be legal. 
Who could he beat in F2?  Erika....ROFLMAO!!!! Uh, yeah.  Danielle, yep.  CG, umhmm--G. might get some points for being a nice guy, but you know what they say about nice guys....Will still played better.  Mike, see above.  Janelle?  Now we have a game, baby!

This is, of course, assuming James leaves tonight.  If by some miracle he doesn't I'll revise tomorrw.  And there are some twists and turns that get added when you take the jurors into account.  But here's the way I see it.  Anyone who just wanted to win this game would take Erika to the end and whup her ass.  Or if you're Will, you take Boogie, knowing that you're splitting the $$, and quite possibly, despite what W. says, knowing you're going to win.  And if the Willboogie/Janie 3-way split is for real, and everyone is really good with it, same deal only more so.  But if you're trying to produce good TV you want 2 things.  You want people who are fun to watch to the end, and you want the audience to feel like the best person won.  And I'd argue that you can't say the best person won if they didn't beat the second best head-to-head.  In other words, if it comes down to Will and Erika, Will wins, but you can't be sure he 100% deserved it b/c the final round was no contest.

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